FINAL COMMENTS – ELECTIONS 2013 – ACCEPT THE RESULTS

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In 2008, PPP got 30.6% of the votes and picked up 35.9% of the seats. PML(N) managed 19.6% of the votes and 26.3% of the seats. PML(Q), the third largest party, got 23% of the popular votes but only 15.5% of the elected seats. Why? Based on the delimitation of constituencies and the concentration of a party’s voter block, this is how the system works. It is unfair to cry rigging every time your favorite loses.

2013 will likely be no different. PTI will replace PML (Q) but due to the lack of geographical concentration of their voters will end up with a disproportionately lower percentage of seats. PPP and PML (N) will swap positions.

Is it Fair? NO. Is it rigging? NO. Do we need to change the System? YES. Pakistan Economic Reform Party(PERP), has developed proposals for the next elections in which we will be participating with full vigor InshaAllah.

Rauf Kadri

Chairman, PERP

 

Pakistan 2013 Elections – Coalition in sight

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With 3 weeks left for the elections, the Election Analysis Team of the Pakistan Economic Reform Party (PERP) is predicting the following results and has posted these comments:

1) 272 general seats will be contested (does not include reserved and minority seats)

2) Breakdown of the 272 seats are:         
                                                 

Punjab =           148 (54.5%)

                                                                                     

Sindh =               61 (22.4%)

                                                                                     

KP     =                35 (12.9%)

                                                                                     

Balochistan =   14 (5.1%)

                                                                                     

FATA =               12 (4.4%)

                                                                                    

Islamabad =        2 (0.7)

3) None of the major parties have announced a proper economic agenda. Most of them have just used election slogans.

4) Based on a seat to seat analysis, our predictions are:

    PML (N)                   112
    PPPP                         73
    PTI                             30
    MQM                         18
    ANP                             7
    PML (Q)                      6
    PML (F)                      5
    JUI (F)                        4
    Others                     17 (includes 12 FATA independents)

 

5) To have a simple majority, one requires 137 seats. No one appears to be in that
     position.

 

6) The most likely coalition appears to be:
     PML (N)  + FATA + PML (F) + JUI (F) +Independents.
    This would give the coalition 138   votes and opposition 134.

7) This would be a very thin majority. PTI may have to be lured in.

 

RAUF KADRI
CHAIRMAN, PERP

CARETAKER GOVERNMENT – FORMATION

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As expected, the Media in Pakistan has started bashing the politicians and the political parties for the delay in selecting a caretaker government.

In an earlier blog, I had proposed some rules of the game for caretaker governments. It has been the history of caretaker governments in the country to act as more powerful than democratically elected governments. Given that presently there are no guidelines or constraints for caretaker governments, it is a myth to assume that they will be merely administrative heads working under the eye of the ECP. Due to vested political interests, a politician should be the least desirable choice for the caretaker government (CG). My earlier recommendations were:

1) The CG shall NOT make any major policy decision that is likely to commit an incoming government.

2) The CG shall NOT make any significant appointment (bureaucratic and public-sector).

3) The CG shall NOT enter into any major commercial contract or undertaking.

4) The CG shall NOT make any major international commitment.

5) Unless absolutely necessary, there shall be NO Presidential Ordinances during the tenure of the CG.

Until such guidelines or rules are in place, let us not ridicule the present process of forming the Caretaker Government.

Caretaker Government in Pakistan

Aside


Caretaker Government

As the date for forming the caretaker government approaches among much controversy and speculation, the following guiding principles for the caretakers should be put in place immediately. Given the chequered history of caretaker governments, all political parties are justifiably concerned with the choice. The controversy could derail the process of democracy in the country. The Pakistan Economic Reform Party (PERP) believes that Pakistan’s future political and economic survival lies in true parliamentary democracy. We recommend that a short Act be passed by parliament to diffuse this dispute. The role of the caretakers can be restricted in the following terms:

 
1) The caretaker government (CG) shall NOT make any major policy decision that is likely to commit an incoming government.
2) The CG shall NOT make any significant appointment (bureaucratic and public-sector).
3) The CG shall NOT enter into any major commercial contract or undertaking.
4) The CG shall NOT make any major international commitment.
5) Unless absolutely necessary, there shall be NO Presidential Ordinances during the tenure of the CG.
 
Any exception to the above rules would need consultation with all major political parties.
Rauf Kadri
Founder Pakistan Economic Reform Party (PERP)
erppakistan@yahoo.ca

       

No to Long March

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PERP (Pakistan Economic Reform Party) strongly opposes the 14th January March. Any attempt to derail democracy and elections in Pakistan is not acceptable. Be reminded that PERP is not planning to contest in the forthcoming elections and strongly condemns the manifesto of all major political parties as none have adequately addressed the economic problems facing Pakistan. Nevertheless, Elections must be held on time and certainly before any constitutional reform.

Rauf  Kadri
Founder
 Pakistan Economic Reform Party